In 2016, there will be a series of new performances in the oil and gas market, which have a significant impact and an important role to play in the global commodity market system. Major global market factors such as global oil and gas production, oil and gas prices, structural transformation of oil and gas industries, market movements and geopolitics will show new characteristics in 2016. Is the so-called years of age similar flowers, different years of age, if the 2015 global oil and gas market is still under the low oil price of the adaptation period, the industry's main efforts to adapt to the downward pressure on oil prices, then the 2016 global oil and gas market estimates Will show the steady development of the characteristics of low oil prices.

Looking forward to 2016, from the supply side, the trend of OPEC's high-yielding strategy and the rebalancing of global oil supply will be the key factors in the market movements. From the demand side, the global economic situation is not optimistic, especially in emerging market economies A further slowdown will also under-stimulate global oil demand growth. Fluctuations in the exchange rate market, long and short speculative changes and potential geopolitical risks will increase the uncertainty of oil price volatility. It can be said that in 2016, the main line of global oil and gas market can not be separated from the low oil price. The petroleum industry gradually stabilized after undergoing the impact of such measures as salary cuts and layoffs by major players in the industry and sharp cuts in investment. The old equilibrium system for development was broken down and the new The gradual establishment of a balanced.

1. International oil prices stabilized

The authority points out that in 2015, at the contest between OPEC and North America for oil market share, the bottom of international oil prices has basically taken shape and there is very little room for further declines. In 2016, the battle between OPEC and U.S. crude producers will continue, but the market will be more balanced. As the market moves toward equilibrium, oil prices will continue to experience dramatic fluctuations.

It is predicted that in 2016, the international oil price will remain low volatility, the overall level of oil prices and 2015 basically the same. In 2016, Brent average annual oil price was 53 US dollars / barrel, WTI average annual oil price of 49 US dollars / barrel, the average spread will be reduced to 4 US dollars / barrel. However, this depends largely on whether the OPEC will continue to maintain its current output. Once the political situation in the Middle East changes, OPEC's decision to relax its production restriction will boost market confidence in a rebound in oil prices, which may unexpectedly rise by more than 60 US dollars / barrel.

2. The lifting of the ban on the export of U.S. crude oil and its follow-up needs continuous attention

Given the status the United States now has in the international crude oil market, the issue of the lifting of the ban on crude oil exports in the United States should serve as a key factor in the 2016 crude oil market.

Although the refining industry in the United States is strong, the average API ° of refined crude oil is only 31, while the API ° in 2010 was 30, only one unit was raised in four years, indicating that the existing plant has been adapted to meet the growing supply of light crude oil A certain degree of difficulty. By analyzing the EIA's data on the commercial stocks of U.S. crude oil, commercial crude oil inventories in the United States have risen sharply since January 2015. Stock pressure is one of the key factors that have lifted the ban. Although the United States lifted the 40-year ban on crude oil exports by the end of the year, there was a great deal of voice in the United States against lifting the export of crude oil. Opponents opposed crude oil exports on the grounds that imported crude oil imported the international cartel economic risk into the United States, Theoretically, the export of U.S. crude oil is equivalent to the possibility of replacing international crude oil. Although the ban on the export of crude oil was lifted, the U.S. government made it clear that it is not ruled out that the president may re-announce the implementation of the ban on crude oil export when the U.S. national interest is seriously affected.

3. Resource countries: the general "loose" oil and gas fiscal policy is likely

In 2015, due to the persistence of low oil prices, some resource-rich countries that used to impose harsh fiscal and taxation provisions in the period of high oil prices began to change their stance and voluntarily adjusted fiscal and taxation policies to attract foreign investment so as to maintain the stability of their oil and gas output. This is also one of the features of "Baotuan heating" that the oil industry has shown in its development mode under low oil prices. The resource-based countries and investors jointly resist the cold winter of low oil prices.

Many multinationals, which were active in the international oil and gas market under the low oil price, slashed their investment in a large area. A large number of high-risk and high-cost investment projects were postponed or canceled. Multinational corporations have sold non-core assets for the purpose of improving cash flow. The enthusiasm and enthusiasm for new investment projects dropped drastically, leading to varying degrees of oil and gas industry in resource-dependent countries shrinking, further affecting the economic and social functioning of these countries.

4. China's oil and gas reform speed up the process

In recent years, the process of reforming China's energy system and mechanism has accelerated markedly. The most obvious manifestation of this is the "operation" of the already formed monopoly management system. There are many new developments in the reform of domestic oil and gas regimes in 2015, which deserve attention. Although the previous rounds of reform are not only ideal but have their positive significance. Oil prices fell in the overall slump in 2015. While the reform of the upstream sector is advancing, the reform of the reform market in the lower reaches has not stopped. Sinopec took the lead set off mixed operations in the downstream market, the government broke the monopoly of many years of crude oil import and export rights, some private enterprises began to have crude oil import qualification.

With the persistence of low oil prices and the difficulty in the survival and development of the petroleum industry, efforts will be intensified in the market to force the reform of institutional mechanisms. In 2016, efforts will be made to reform the domestic oil and gas system and institutions, with a number of upstream Point, such as pipe network separation, investment diversification and so on.

5. The oil industry continues to struggle hard

In 2015, the multinational oil companies and small and medium-sized companies responded to the desperate struggle against low oil prices by cutting wages and slashing wages, slashing their investment, divesting non-core assets, optimizing asset portfolios and technological innovation. According to the feedback from the 2015 oil company quarterly earnings report, these measures have achieved some results but are not enough to ease the pressure on corporate policymakers as the quarterly profit declines by a large margin.

Given the high probability of a sustained low oil price in 2016, the recessionary period of the oil industry is estimated to continue in this year, and oil companies have to bear the tightening days. However, in the process of coping with low oil prices and reducing investment, the oil industry is not just about to die. Some structural changes in their operations are worth noting.

6. Oil and Gas M & A: Upstream and Downstream Prosperity

The M & A market is an important part of the global oil and gas market. Since the low oil prices continued in mid-2014, there have been some dramatic changes in global oil and gas market M & A. It is particularly evident in the upstream area that oil companies are more likely to show divestitures rather than mergers and acquisitions. After 2015, the number of global oil and gas mergers and acquisitions projects dropped significantly, although the transaction amount has seen a substantial increase but not enough to explain the merger situation is better. In 2015, the major reason for the large amount of oil and gas mergers and acquisitions was that the transaction volume of Shell's M & A BG reached 80 billion U.S. dollars.

Changes in M ​​& A market of middle and lower reaches of business once again verify that the development of oil companies moderate shift to the middle and lower reaches, through resource integration in response to changes in business philosophy of low oil prices. With the continuous development of low oil prices and low gas prices in 2016, this change in the oil and gas M & A market is estimated to continue.

Low oil prices and China's gains and losses

Affected by the drop in international oil prices, the Chinese crude oil and refined oil markets also remained sluggish in the past year. On the one hand, the slowdown of oil demand growth; the other hand, overcapacity, product backlog, poor sales; coupled with the impact of smuggled oil, making the domestic market presents a serious oversupply situation.

In theory, China should be the biggest beneficiary of falling international oil prices because 60% of China's oil demand is dependent on imports. Low oil prices will enable us to reduce our import costs and boost domestic consumption. However, the reality is that in 2015, China cut the refined oil prices while raising the fuel tax on refined oil products (to promote energy conservation and reduce pollution emissions), offsetting the impact of some oil price declines and therefore not contributing to consumption obvious. In the first half of 2015, China's refined oil consumption increased by 3.2% over the same period of last year, significantly lower than the average growth rate of 6.3% in 2009-2013. It can be seen that the current impact on the domestic oil market is still more a problem of China's economy. Structural adjustment, economic slowdown and interweaving with environmental degradation are the most fundamental reasons leading to the weakness of the domestic petroleum industry and the oil market.

Of course, lower international oil prices also provide a golden opportunity for China to increase its strategic oil reserves and to go global and develop overseas investment. The increase in China's crude oil imports in 2015 precisely reflects the government's strategic considerations in this regard.

In the future, with the slowdown of China's economic growth and the impelling effect of the economy on petroleum consumption, the demand for petroleum will continue to maintain its rapid growth in the coming year. However, the market is still in the course of industrial restructuring and inventory-freeing Will show a slightly larger than the demand for the state. As China's crude oil prices are fully in line with those in the international market, refined oil prices have also been subject to adjustments at home and abroad. According to experts' forecasts, under the general downturn of international oil prices, next year domestic crude oil and refined oil prices will likely continue to fluctuate at a low level It is still very beneficial for China to supplement the strategic oil reserve, reduce the pressure of rising CPI and carry out the economic restructuring and upgrading.